What changes will the current status and future status and future in the real estate industry?

2 thoughts on “What changes will the current status and future status and future in the real estate industry?”

  1. The “Fourteenth Five -Year Plan” plan clearly proposed that “housing does not fry”. Under such a big background, the real estate industry is also experiencing the change of the old and new era.
    The “Fourteenth Five -Year Plan” plan was introduced, and it clearly proposed that “housing does not fry”. Against such a background, the real estate industry is also experiencing the change of the old and new era. In 2021, my country’s economy continued to improve, but real estate and financial supervision did not relax. In this context, how does the current status and future change in the real estate industry change?
    1. Industry environment: Maintaining the funds is reasonable and abundant, the regulation and control policies are mainly stable
    macroeconomic aspects. Looking forward to 2021, the international environment is uncertain and unstable. Balanced and insufficient issues are still worthy of attention. Although the employment situation has improved, the overall pressure is still under great pressure. In the future, the central government will still exceed the large domestic cycle, fully release the potential of domestic demand, and lay a solid foundation for the formation of the new pattern of “dual cycle”. At the same time, in order to support the development of the real economy and reduce the actual cost of social financing, the central government will continue to implement stableness Monetary policy pays more attention to grasping comprehensive balance between stable growth, structure, risk prevention, and inflation, and provides a more favorable capital environment for economic recovery and development. The growth rate of M2 is expected to remain in a high level. The long -term management mechanism of real estate finance continues to be accelerated, and real estate financial supervision will continue to strengthen to prevent excessive finance in the real estate market and prevent systematic financial risks.
    If policies, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Fourteenth Five -Year Plan for the Development of the National Economic and Social Development and the 2013 Fast Vision Goals “was released, and proposed that” adhere to the house for living, not for it for living, not for it for not for it. The positioning of frying, rented and purchase, and the policy of cities to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. “The overall property market regulation tone is consistent with in recent years. In the next five years, China’s real estate market regulation policy will remain continuous and stable. “Houses do not stir -fry”, due to urban policies to ensure the smooth operation of the market, under the goal of “three stability”, policies such as restrictions on purchase, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions in the short term are obviously relaxed, and there is room for improvement. In addition, the “Suggestion” proposes to “promote the healthy development of housing consumption”. Reasonable housing consumption is still an object of encouraging and supporting, and regulatory policies may supplement and optimize in related aspects. “Promoting the balanced development of finance and real estate with the real economy” also indicates that real estate and finance will pay more attention to coordinated development and play a more important role in promoting the real economy.

    2. Market trend: The development rhythm of the real estate market has slowed down, and the sales of commercial housing fell smoothly
    Overall forecasting: Slightly adjusted sales area, new start -up maintenance, and the development investment amount maintains medium and high -speed growth trend
    According to the “China Real Estate Medium and Long -term Development Dynamic Model”, combined with the prediction of the economic environment of domestic and foreign economic research institutions at home and abroad, referring to the recent macro policy direction and the spirit of important conferences, the following assumptions on the real estate market in 2021:
    assumes 1: The macroeconomic recovery quickly, smoothing the impact of the epidemic (GDP increases by 9.0%);
    assumed 2: urbanization steadily advanced (urbanization rate increases by 1 percentage point to 62.6%);
    Assumed 3 assumptions 3 : Flexible monetary policy (M2 increases 9.5%~ 10%), precise orientation, and the financial supervision of the real estate industry is tightened as a whole;
    hypothetical 4: adhere to the “house housing does not speculate” regulatory orientation, due to urban policies, long -term regulation and control The mechanism is accelerated.
    In the premise of meeting the assumptions and no expected incidents, according to the “China Real Estate Industry Medium and Long -term Dynamic Model”, in 2021, the real estate market will show “slightly adjusted sales area, and the average sales price will rise steadily. The characteristics of starting at a high level and investing in high -speed growth “.
    The demand side, the credit environment of the real estate industry is tightened, or the demand will be more rational. It is estimated that the sales area of ​​commercial housing in 2021 will decrease by 2.3%to 3.8%; given the average sales price in the product structure and the sales of first- and second -tier cities in the first- and second -tier cities Under the influence of factors such as good factors, structural increases (3.9%~ 5.4%) will still be maintained, and new breakthroughs are expected to achieve new breakthroughs in commercial housing sales in 2021. In the background of the “three red lines” trial, the pressure and sales pressure of housing enterprises have further appeared, and the new starting enthusiasm is significantly improved. The overall construction scale may continue to adjust the situation. However, the increase in land transaction area in 2020 will increase It will maintain a high level of new start -up scale, and it is expected that the new start of construction in 2021 will be between 0.1%and 1.6%. In terms of investment, the construction progress of project construction in construction in 2021 will be accelerated, driving the investment support development investment amount of Jian’an Investment, but the amount of investment in the development of investment support will continue to grow, but but the amount of investment in the development of support for the development of the investment support will continue to increase, but the amount of investment in the development of investment support will continue to increase, but the investment amount of investment support will continue to grow, but the amount of investment in the development of investment support will continue to grow, but the investment amount of investment support will continue to grow, but the investment amount of investment support will continue to grow, but the amount of investment in the development of investment support will continue to increase, but but the amount of investment in the development of investment support will continue to grow, but the amount of investment in the development of investment support will continue to grow, but but the amount of investment in the development of investment support will continue to increase, but the amount of investment in the development of investment support will continue to increase, but it will continue to grow. However Considering that the growth rate of land purchase fees has been greatly adjusted, the growth rate of investment in the annual development investment may fall to the mid -to -high level, and the model is calculated between 5.4%and 6.9%.
    3. Focus: Focus on core cities and urban groups, grasp the structural opportunities brought by regional differentiation
    2021, the development rhythm of the real estate market will slow down, and the overall sales volume will be slightly adjusted to adjust the pressure. In the context of continuous advancement, key resources such as population and land will accelerate the gathering of urban agglomerations and central cities, focusing on urban agglomerations and central cities, and to enjoy the dividends brought by urbanization. However, it is worth noting that under the influence of the regional development process, market cycle, external environmental changes, supply and demand support, etc., there is a certain differentiation of the development of the real estate market in key regions. Pay attention to the structural opportunities brought by regional differentiation.
    The market in the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area market, Chengdu and Chongqing may have cyclical adjustment pressure. The analysis of the current status of the real estate market, regulation and control policies, development planning prospects, and support of both ends of supply and demand, and the prediction of the macro environment in 2021, we made the following judgments on the market trend of the five major city agglomerations in 2021.
    The top -level design in the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area has landed, the central government has many support policies, the industrial development is mature, the population is attractive, and the real estate market demand is strong. In addition, the overall market market has continued to adjust in the past few years. Suppressing, under the context of the continuous favorable development of regional coordinated development, the market has a strong pioneering power. The supply side, the land supply in the area in 2020 has increased significantly, and the new construction is more positive, which will effectively improve the overall supply status of demand. It is expected to be affected by both ends of the supply and demand. In 2021, the real estate market size of the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area has room for growth. In view of the current land price and house prices still have great motivation, it is expected that the regulation may be further upgraded. In this context, it is expected that 2021 is expected to be 2021. The increase in housing prices in the year will fall.
    The regional planning of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, the foundation of the economic and industrial foundation, the population attraction and the population of the population and the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area, and the demand for the real estate market is also strong. However limited. At present, under the influence of regulatory policies in the transaction market and land market in the Yangtze River Delta region, a high decline is showing a high decline. It is expected that the market will remain strictly regulated in 2021. Judging from the significant improvement of the supply side, it is expected that the scale of the real estate market in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration will increase slightly by 2021, and the overall amount of quantitative price increase will be stable.
    The Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei urban agglomeration is affected by the integration and promotion rhythm and short -term planning. It is difficult to bring additional demand to the real estate market, and the population inflows are relatively small. Adjustment, the overall sales volume has a certain gap compared with the past high level. In an environment with stable policies and sufficient supply, demand will be steadily released. It is expected that the overall market size of Beijing -Tianjin -Hebei will be stabilized in 2021, but the internal market will be differentiated. Beijing’s policy is stable, demand is strong, and supply is sufficient. It is expected that market sales will continue to grow; Tianjin’s market emotions are relatively deserted, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. , Demand is expected to rise at a low level.
    Shengyu urban agglomeration has regional planning to land, and the short -term policy facilitates high support for the demand for the real estate market. However, in view of the continuous release of market demand in recent years, the planned landing or supporting the scale of demand can be maintained in the short term. High level, but the overall market market still has the pressure of adjustment. In 2021, the market size of the Chengdu -Chongqing urban agglomeration is steadily or slightly adjusted, and the internal market market will be differentiated. Among them, Chengdu’s high demand in 2020 is released. As the regulation is tightened, the market size has been adjusted in 2021; the market cycle of the market in the first two years of Chongqing has spontaneously adjusted and demand is suppressed. It is expected that under the support of the planning favorable, the market is expected to gradually stabilize; The Chongqing urban agglomeration is in the dual -core focusing stage in the short term. The demand for other third- and fourth -tier cities is relatively limited. In addition, the lack of shed reforms, the market in the third and fourth -tier cities in the urban agglomeration in 2021 may face the pressure of adjustment.
    The real estate market in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has been greatly impacted in the epidemic market, and the new start scale has reduced it under the influence of activity control. The market size has decreased significantly compared with the previous year. In 2021, as the epidemic is effectively controlled, with the support of targeted policies, it is expected that the macroeconomic face of the city agglomeration in the middle of the Yangtze River is expected to recover, and the confidence in the real estate market will be boosted. The demand will be gradually released. It is expected that in the middle of the Yangtze River in the middle of the Yangtze River in 2021 The size of the group market will increase, but it takes time to restore the comprehensive recovery of the economy, and the demand will be relatively gentle.

    The above is the outlook for the current status and future of the real estate industry in the real estate industry in 2021. I hope it can be helpful to you who are about to buy a house.

  2. The intense competition in the real estate industry sinks to the second and third -tier cities.
    In 2020, the Chinese real estate industry shows a trend of preemptive and then stabilizing. Under the influence of the new coronary pneumonia, the cumulative sales scale of the top 100 real estate in 2020 still achieved positive growth of nearly 13%. In the context of “housing and not frying”, the market market has intensified, industry competition has returned to products, and the TOP100 threshold of project sales has continued to increase.
    -The threshold for the number of entry into the list has increased year by year.
    In 2020, the threshold of China’s top 100 real estate increased by 6%to 50.2 billion, intensified competition. Shanghai’s Greenland Haipper Bund project won the crown list for 27.93 billion yuan, which topped the list last year. , All in the range of 105-120 billion yuan. On the other hand, the threshold for the top 30 rose to 6.79 billion yuan, even close to the annual sales of the top 200 of the real estate enterprise rankings. In addition, the threshold for the top 50 and the top 100 also increased significantly. Increase.
    -The sales amount is concentrated in the first and second -tier cities of the Yangtze River Delta

    From the perspective of the sales amount of the enterprise, China Shipping Real Estate won the sales of China’s real estate enterprise project in 2020 with the sales amount of 77.88 billion yuan Essence Followed by China Evergrande (44.87 billion yuan), Sunac China (44.17 billion yuan), and Vanke Real Estate (34.15 billion yuan). Judging from the number of real estate projects sold by enterprises, although Sunac Real Estate has only 5 real estate projects, its amount exceeds Vanke Real Estate, which ranks fourth.
    In regional distribution, the top 100 sales amount of Chinese real estate enterprises in 2019 and 2020 is mainly based on regional distribution TOP10. The first and second -tier cities have a unique resource advantage. In addition, in recent years, the continuous upgrading of talent introduction policies in first -tier cities in recent years has brought more incremental demand for first -tier and second -tier cities. Second -tier cities are like the growth of urban population in Hangzhou and Xi’an is in a stage of high -speed development, and some cities with rapid development have begun to aging, and urban renewal has also brought an opportunity for stocks. On the whole, whether from 2019 or 2020, the market in the Yangtze River and Pearl River Delta is continued, and it occupies 4 seats in TOP10 in 2020.
    -The sales area is concentrated in the second -tier cities in the central and western regions
    From the perspective of the total sales area of ​​the enterprise, China Evergrande won the sales area of ​​China’s real estate enterprise project in 2020 with a sales area of ​​12.628 million square meters. Secondly, Sunac China (611 million cubic meters), Country Garden (2.606 million cubic meters), and China Shipping Real Estate (1.732 million cubic meters). From the perspective of sales amount, although China’s sales area (12.628 million cubic meters) far exceeds China Shipping Real Estate (1.732 million cubic meters), the sales amount of China Shipping Real Estate (77.88 billion yuan) far exceeds China Evergrande (44.87 billion yuan) Yuan).
    If of the sales area, due to the benefits of policy in recent years, the rapid development of second -tier cities has been accompanied by policy benefits. After the “wars of grabbing people” in various second -tier cities, the housing demand gaps in various second -tier cities have expanded unprecedentedly. On the whole, the policy bias for cities in central and western cities in recent years has led to a prosperous real estate industry in central and western cities.
    -For more data, please refer to the “Analysis Report on the Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China’s Real Estate Industry Industry in China”

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